Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.007088 0.007977 0.008936 0.010049 0.011306 0.012682 0.014304
2026-02-08 0.005666 0.006887 0.008313 0.010103 0.012293 0.014892 0.018215
2026-02-15 0.004797 0.006148 0.007813 0.010019 0.012875 0.016458 0.021309
2026-02-22 0.004302 0.005758 0.007632 0.010230 0.013750 0.018375 0.024942
2026-03-01 0.003729 0.005178 0.007115 0.009904 0.013837 0.019212 0.027162
2026-03-08 0.003314 0.004755 0.006747 0.009716 0.014052 0.020192 0.029617
2026-03-15 0.002951 0.004361 0.006371 0.009460 0.014120 0.020937 0.031758
2026-03-22 0.002802 0.004259 0.006396 0.009780 0.015041 0.022980 0.035994
2026-03-29 0.002641 0.004120 0.006349 0.009974 0.015776 0.024787 0.040009
2026-04-05 0.002504 0.004004 0.006321 0.010189 0.016549 0.026700 0.044346
2026-04-12 0.002312 0.003782 0.006106 0.010081 0.016784 0.027757 0.047350
2026-04-19 0.002161 0.003614 0.005961 0.010071 0.017168 0.029077 0.050894
2026-04-26 0.001993 0.003404 0.005737 0.009913 0.017302 0.030005 0.053880
2026-05-03 0.001878 0.003277 0.005640 0.009968 0.017806 0.031612 0.058225
2026-05-10 0.001752 0.003119 0.005476 0.009885 0.018054 0.032776 0.061851
2026-05-17 0.001684 0.003057 0.005474 0.010093 0.018842 0.034972 0.067605
2026-05-24 0.001542 0.002851 0.005199 0.009772 0.018614 0.035261 0.069693
2026-05-31 0.001433 0.002697 0.005004 0.009586 0.018623 0.035990 0.072698
2026-06-07 0.001325 0.002536 0.004785 0.009334 0.018480 0.036406 0.075098
2026-06-14 0.001297 0.002527 0.004854 0.009649 0.019485 0.039164 0.082581
2026-06-21 0.001256 0.002489 0.004861 0.009841 0.020254 0.041504 0.089386
2026-06-28 0.001220 0.002457 0.004879 0.010053 0.021079 0.044021 0.096797
2026-07-05 0.001151 0.002354 0.004748 0.009947 0.021224 0.045117 0.101161